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| War of words between the Somali-Islamists and the Kenyan government |
Here in Kenya, there has been an intense debate over the threat posed by the Islamist forces in Somalia, Alshabab and Hizbul Islam. Last month, members of the Kismayo administration in southern Somalia, made threats against Kenya. In response, the Kenyan authority has mobilised its military along the border between the two countries. So, what is likely scenario?
From the Islamists’ point of view, Kenya is indispensable in many ways. It is the number-one destination for many Somalis across the world. Those who fed up living in the West, the Middle East, Somalia and other parts of Africa resettle in Kenya. Quite simply, unlike other places, they have the freedom to live, to set up businesses and to prosper. Therefore, the last thing the Islamists would want is to lose the support of these Somali businessmen/women, who are powerful and influential within the society. Individuals within the Islamists might make rhetoric comments but - it would be a suicidal to attack Kenya - and they know that better than anyone else.
In relation to Kenya's interests, Somalis inhabit part of the country and to a great extent, contribute to the economy. The new buildings in Nairobi especially in Eastleigh are testimony to that. And, arguably, Eastleight, is now the biggest market in east and central Africa. With respect to other East African nations, Kenyans seem to be more civilised and, therefore, tolerant and ‘flexible’ towards others. In addition, politicians in Nairobi are accountable to their electorates. For them, it would be foolish to invite insecurity in the country. The situation in Somalia and the post-election crisis last year should be good lessons to avoid any trouble.
Both parties realise the consequences of waging war against one another. For that reason, there is no prospect of any conflict between the Islamists and Kenya.
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